Ecommerce Subscription Churn: Voluntary vs Involuntary Churn
A subscriber can disappear for two completely different reasons.
One says:
Cancel my subscription.
The other says nothing.
Their card simply fails.
Treating those as the same churn problem is a mistake.
Recurly’s July 2026 network data reports ecommerce subscription churn at 4.25%, split into 2.87% voluntary and 1.38% involuntary churn. (recurly.com)
That means a meaningful part of churn can happen without the customer choosing to leave.
Voluntary churn
The customer decides to cancel.
Possible reasons:
- value,
- inventory,
- product dissatisfaction,
- price,
- lifestyle change.
Solve with:
- better product,
- pause,
- flexibility,
- save offers,
- experience.
Involuntary churn
Payment fails.
Solve with:
- retries,
- account updater,
- payment reminders,
- dunning.
Shopify cites Recurly data showing 53% of failed monthly-plan payments can be recovered. (shopify.com)
That is a completely different problem.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good subscription churn rate?
Compare against similar business models. Recurly’s current ecommerce benchmark is 4.25% in its network. (recurly.com)
Is churn calculated monthly or annually?
Either can be used, but the period must be stated clearly.
What is involuntary churn?
A subscription lost because payment failed rather than because the customer intentionally cancelled.
The principle
Do not send a value proposition to a customer whose problem is an expired card.
Diagnose the churn first.